Concern for TV opportunities in 2009

Despite viewing figures holding up in 2008, next year could see viewers switching off, hitting TV income and consequently production budgets across the board.

A report from market analyst Deloitte quotes one executive’s fears: “Programmes broadcast this year typically will have been commissioned in 2007, when the mood was more bullish. But 2008’s commissions might be smothered by over-zealous risk assessments, with the result being a conservative set of programmes for 2009 and a turned-off audience.”

The viewers’ loss of trust is mainly due to phone-in voting scandals, but may also be due to distorted storylines, the report says. Running order changes have been made “often purely for the sake of dramatic impact”.

Explaining the possible motivation behind the broadcasters’ actions, Deloitte says: "One common factor blamed for the proliferation of deception was competition for ratings as well as profits. Competition tempted some broadcasters and producers into tweaking storylines, for example by changing chronological order, to increase a programme’s appeal. Several executives interviewed considered that too many people in television now ‘want to be a millionaire’.”

Despite this loss of trust, viewing figures are remaining steady, with viewing actually increasing in early 2008 compared to the previous two years. Deloitte points out that despite viewers not trusting TV, many “are not walking out on television. Not this time.”

The report, which was published at the Media Guardian Edinburgh International Television Festival, in August 2008, also considers two possible models for reducing production budgets, particularly in light of the impact of new technologies.

The first, that of “cost optimisation”, would be to incentivise producers to come in under budget, for example with a share of the budget under-run. “Currently there is little incentive, monetary or otherwise, for the producer not to use every penny of the budget allocated,” says Deloitte. Introducing incentives, could, for example, prompt a producer to choose between going for special effects or shooting in HDTV.

The other model proposed by poll respondents, would be for “fewer productions, but larger individual budgets, delivering content over multiple platforms.” This would place more reliance on “ancillary revenues” eg marketing themed merchandise.

“Executives expected that the production market might stratify between those specialists in global hits and experts in addressing local audiences.”

Download the latest thinking on the UK industry in a special PDF report at: 

Media Guardian Perspectives on UK Television

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